Inflation – eine unterschätzte Gefahr?
Soweit ersichtlich ist unser Parteivize der #FreienWähler und EU Abgeordnete #EninEroglu der einzige Spitzenpolitiker des gesamten Parteienspektrums, der das Thema #Inflation öffentlich thematisiert.
Vor einer Inflation bzw. Stagflation warnen diverse #Ökonomen ja schon länger. Dass es trotz explodierender #Geldmengen weltweit bisher noch nicht zu stärkeren #Inflationstendenzen im #Warenkorb gekommen ist, hat zwei Ursachen. Die Flucht in das Betongold und in die Aktienmärkte hat zu einer #Vermögenspreisinflation geführt, die aber in der Inflationsmessung bisher nicht abgebildet wurde. Dazu muss man wissen, dass in 2020 weltweit mehr Geld als je zuvor gedruckt wurde. Es ist also kein spezifisch deutsches oder europäisches Problem. Die Raten der Geldmengenerhöhungen in 2020 reichen von 30 – 75% der Gesamtgeldmenge.
Ein zweiter Grund für die „ausbleibende“ Inflation bietet die Keynesianische Theorie der #Liquiditätspräferenz. Sie besagt, dass die Menschen in Krisenzeiten Geld horten. Sie müssen also Anreize bekommen, dieses auszugeben. Heutzutage macht man das mit z.B. #Negativzinsen.
Wie ist der Status, wie sind die Ergebnisse und was ist zu erwarten? Derzeit ist die Inflation in D (August) bei 3,9 %. In den USA liegt sie derzeit bei 5% mit steigender Tendenz.
Die #Bundesbank rechnet derzeit noch mit einem Abflauen des Inflationstrendes, weil im Januar die Folgen der Umsatzsteuererhöhung und der CO2 Steuer dann „verarbeitet“ sind.
Folgende Punkte sind nicht berücksichtigt:
– Der Weg in Zinserhöhungen ist der EZB (den Regierungen) derzeit versperrt (die Notwendigkeit ist schon länger bekannt
https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/italien-nimmt-die-europaeische-zentralbank-in-geiselhaft-ld.1435129).
– Der Maastricht Vertrag, der die Geldwertstabilität garantieren sollte, wurde komplett unterhöhlt.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/schneller-schlau/grafik-des-tages-der-verstoss-als-regelfall-14250355.html-
Die Weizenpreise schießen durch die Decke, mit allen Konsequenzen für die Lebensmittelpreise
https://www.agrarheute.com/markt/marktfruechte/getreidepreise-schiessen-weizenpreise-decke-577189
– Unabhängig von der Frage der durch die Weizenpreise beeinflussten Futterkosten wird Fleisch durch andere Faktoren teurer werden. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/julia-kloeckner-fleisch-wird-teurer-werden-es-wird-teurer-werden-a-33dbbaf2-eaf2-4b0a-acac-9832aa06cd78
– Sämtliche Energiekosten werden durch die erhöhte CO2 Steuer (Sprit bis zu 70 Cent) nochmals teurer und fressen sich als Kostenumlage durch alle Konsumentenpreise (dass das politisch schon länger geplant war:
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/benzin-und-diesel-sprit-muesste-bis-zu-70-cent-teurer-werden/25302184.html)
– Durch den Mangel an Vorprodukten (hier Chips) kommt es zu Kurzarbeit, die das Warenagebot verknappt.
https://www.rnd.de/wirtschaft/chipmangel-vw-meldet-kurzarbeit-an-werke-in-wolfsburg-und-emden-teils-komplett-stillgelegt-HWOWFA4Z3ZBB5HEQVDTZC3YPDY.html
– Die Flucht ins Betongold hat nicht nur die Preise der Bestandsimmobilien getrieben, sondern auch die Baukosten.
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2021/07/PD21_N044_61.html
– Die Seeschiffahrt wird durch Corona und Havarien (Evergiven im Suezkanal) behindert, Lieferketten sind bedroht, die just in time Produktion ist gefährdet. https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/containerstau-china-ningbo-lieferketten-hapag-lloyd-101.html
Es ist alles angerichtet für den perfekten Sturm.
Und unser Bildungssystem trägt in eklatanter Weise dazu bei. 44% der Jugendlichen wissen nicht was Inflationsrate bedeutet.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bildung-44-prozent-der-jugendlichen-wissen-nicht-was-inflationsrate-bedeutet-a-c145ab25-3c46-413d-a2a6-e9245fa60f75
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